Quibi
Riskiest Assumption: Users want to watch videos on their phones
We believe that users want to regularly (over a majority of the time) watch videos on their phones.
To verify, we will record the streaming data of a group of 200 participants and see what devices they use for streaming and the different percentages of it.
And measure the percentage of videos watched on phones.
We are right if the percentage of videos is more than 50% (of 200 users), because then users are considered to watch a majority of their videos on their phones.
Humane AI Pin
Riskiest Assumption: Users feel that siri is poorly executed and that the existing siri is not what users want for a personal assistant
We believe that users think siri executes, acts, and speaks not up to the standard that it ought to do those actions.
To verify, we will test a range of apple users (20 novice, 20 regular users, 20 heavy users) and take a poll to understand their honest thoughts and feelings about siri. We will also see how frequently they use siri.
And measure the amount of times siri is used.
We are right if the amount of times siri is used is less than 50% of the time that users have a basic task to complete (one that small personal assistant like siri should be capable of doing)
Juicero
Riskiest Assumption: Customers are willing to pay $400 for a juicer
We believe that users are dissatisfied by manual or limited/basic electric juicers, lacking high quality
To verify, we will provide our juicer to 200 people who enjoy eating healthy with fruits and vegetables through juices and see how often they use our juicer
And measure if their current rates of using the juicer with our new juicer compared to the rate of using the older juicer before juicero was provided
We are right if the rate of using our juicer is higher than the rate of using the other juicer
Sources:
https://medium.com/@efrainternet/quibi-when-risky-assumptions-need-serious-questioning-4e78810bc804
https://dareobasanjo.medium.com/the-humane-ai-pin-a-case-study-in-poor-strategy-and-poor-execution-8293734d1adb
https://www.swissuniversity.com/post/juicero-and-the-theatre-of-innovation-venture-capital-product-legitimacy-and-the-management-lesso
