Looking at Quibi, Humane AI Pin, and Juicero, I think all three products had interesting ideas, but the companies made some big assumptions about what customers actually wanted. Instead of investing so much money into developing and launching these products, they could have tested whether people were willing to pay for them and use them in their everyday lives.
1. Quibi
We believe: People are willing to pay $5 a month for short, professionally produced videos on their phones, even though free alternatives like YouTube and TikTok already exist.
To verify, we will: Create a simple website featuring a few sample videos and offer visitors the option to sign up for a paid subscription. We don’t need to build the entire streaming platform to test whether people are interested.
And measure: The percentage of visitors who actually subscribe rather than just click on the website.
We are right if: At least 5% of 1,000 visitors sign up for a paid subscription.
2. Humane AI Pin
We believe: People would prefer using a wearable AI assistant over their smartphones for everyday tasks because it is more convenient and hands-free.
To verify, we will: Give 20 people a basic prototype for one week and ask them to use it for common activities, like checking messages, asking questions, or setting reminders. We can observe whether they naturally choose the pin or go back to their phones.
And measure: How frequently users choose the AI Pin instead of their smartphones.
We are right if: At least 15 out of 20 users choose the pin for more than half of these tasks.
3. Juicero
We believe: People are willing to spend $400 on a juicing machine because the convenience it provides is worth the price.
To verify, we will: Show 30 potential customers a demonstration comparing the Juicero machine with simply squeezing the juice packs by hand. Then, we will offer them the opportunity to preorder the machine with a refundable deposit.
And measure: How many people are willing to put down actual money after seeing both methods.
We are right if: At least 10 out of 30 people place a $20 deposit.
Takeaway
What stood out to me across these three cases is that the companies seemed to confuse having an innovative product with solving a real customer problem. I think the cheapest and most useful tests would focus on actual customer behavior rather than just asking people whether they like the idea. People might say a product sounds cool, but that doesn’t mean they will pay for it or use it regularly. Testing these assumptions early could have helped the companies reconsider their products before spending so much money on launch.
