Quibi
Quibi’s riskiest bet wasn’t that people like short videos. It was that they’d pay for them when TikTok gives them away.
- We believe people will pay $5–8/month for premium short shows watched only on their phones.
- To verify, we will run ads to a landing page with trailers and a “Start subscription” button that asks for a card.
- And measure the percentage of visitors who enter payment info.
- We are right if at least 5% enter a card.
A few thousand dollars in ads, not a billion in content.
Humane AI Pin
The bet was that people would choose a $699 pin over the phone already in their pocket.
- We believe people will use a voice-only pin instead of their phone for everyday tasks.
- To verify, we will give 20 people a cheap clip-on mic connected to a voice assistant (or a teammate answering live) for a week.
- And measure tasks per day done on the pin vs. the phone.
- We are right if half are still doing 5+ tasks a day on the pin by the week’s end.
A $30 dummy would have shown whether the habit sticks before anyone built hardware.
Juicero
The bet was that the $400 machine did something hands couldn’t.
- We believe our press gets much more juice out of a pack than squeezing by hand.
- To verify, we will have ten people squeeze packs by hand and compare the results to the press.
- And measure how much juice they get and how long it takes.
- We are right if hand-squeezing gets less than half the juice, or takes over five minutes.
Ten people and a measuring cup are all it would take.
All three spent big before testing the one thing that had to be true, and that cost them everything.
