For each product, I’d test whether people actually changed their behavior once the excitement and novelty wore off. These are my proposed tests and thresholds.
Quibi
Quibi bet on paid, short-form mobile entertainment in a market full of free alternatives.
- We believe: People will keep paying $4.99/month for short shows made for their phones.
- To verify, we will: Sell 100 target users a month of a few licensed short series through a basic mobile website, then offer renewal.
- And measure: The percentage who pay for month two.
- We are right if: At least 20% renew.
This tests repeat demand before spending heavily on original content.
Humane AI Pin
Reviews found the Pin slow and unreliable, which matters when your phone already does the same tasks.
- We believe: People will prefer a screenless voice assistant for everyday tasks.
- To verify, we will: Give ten people a cheap clip-on microphone connected to the intended AI software for a week, with their phones still available.
- And measure: The share of eligible tasks they voluntarily attempt through the prototype during the final two days.
- We are right if: That share reaches 50%.
Juicero
Juicero’s packets could be squeezed by hand. That makes the machine’s added value the first thing I’d question.
- We believe: The machine adds enough convenience to justify its advertised price.
- To verify, we will: Have 20 regular juice buyers try both methods, then offer a refundable machine reservation at that price.
- And measure: Paid reservations.
- We are right if: At least five reserve.
