Quibi ($1.75B raised, shut down within eight months)
- We believe commuters will pay $4.99/month for premium short shows, with free TikTok a swipe away.
- To verify, we will run a fake-door paywall: ads to a landing page with three trailers and a “Subscribe” button.
- And measure the share of visitors who enter a card.
- We are right if at least 5% of 2,000 visitors do.
Humane AI Pin ($699 + $24/month)
- We believe people will use their phones less if a screenless voice wearable handles quick tasks.
- To verify, we will run a Wizard-of-Oz pilot: 20 users wear a clip-on mic linked to a phone assistant for two weeks.
- And measure the share of quick tasks done through the clip instead of the phone.
- We are right if at least 50% go through the clip in week two.
Juicero ($400 press)
- We believe the press gets meaningfully more juice from a pack than hands can.
- To verify, we will squeeze 10 packs by hand and press 10, timing each.
- And measure juice yield per pack.
- We are right if the press yields at least 25% more in the same time. Juicero’s test cost one afternoon. Bloomberg ran it after launch and got nearly as much juice by hand, faster.
What this means for our product. Our riskiest assumption is that team leads will vote asynchronously instead of calling another meeting. We believe invited reviewers will vote on time without chasing. To verify, we’ll run five real decisions by hand with a Google Form, measure on-time vote rate, and we’re right if it’s at least 70%.
