Quibi:
The Risky Assumption: People are willing to pay a monthly subscription fee for high-production-value, 10-minute video clips designed for mobile viewing.
We believe: Users will pay a $4.99 monthly subscription fee for exclusive, high-production-value short-form video content when they don’t have time to watch full shows and movies
To verify, we will: Launch a “fake door” test with trailers of 3 concept shows using existing licensed footage edited into 8-minute clips and a “subscribe for $4.99/mo” button.
Measure: The percentage of visitors who click the subscription button and complete a mock payment checkout screen.
We are right if: At least 20% of un-targeted mobile traffic completes the mock checkout process.
The Humane AI Pin:
The Risky Assumption: Consumers want to replace their smartphones with a screenless, voice/gesture-controlled wearable device for everyday communication and information retrieval.
We believe: Tech-forward consumers are willing to completely leave their smartphones at home for a full day and rely entirely on a voice-first, screenless wearable assistant for their daily tasks.
To verify, we will: Run a 48-hour “Wizard of Oz” experiment with 100 target users. We will give them a dummy wearable prop that relies on a human/basic AI system to perform the basic tasks of the final product
Measure: The number of times users ask to go back to their physical smartphone before the 48 hours are over
We are right if: Fewer than 20% of participants abandon the test within the 48-hour window
Juicero:
The Risky Assumption: Customers require a highly engineered press to extract juice from pre-packaged fruit and vegetable packets
We believe that: The machine + packets provides an extraction process that was little to no mess and was necessary for juice
To verify, we will: Provide a select number of users with a juicer and a stipend to buy the packets with, and ask them to use the machine and rank it on usefulness, cost, necessity, etc
And measure: The percentage of participants who state they would buy the $700 press
We are right if: At least 70% of participants agree that the machine-pressed juice is worth the massive investment over the current methods they use
