Quibi: a short-form video streaming platform built for mobile devices
- We believe… people will pay $5/month for premium shows built for short phone sessions on the go.
- To verify, we will… run a fake-door ad for “Hollywood shows in 10-minute bites” that leads to a trial signup page.
- And measure… the share of visitors who enter a card.
- We are right if… at least 5% of 2,000 visitors start a trial.
Quibi failed because they failed to consider YouTube and TikTok, which essentially provide the same service for free.
Humane AI Pin: a screenless, wearable AI gadget
- We believe… people will wear a $699 screenless device, plus a monthly fee, instead of reaching for their phone.
- To verify, we will… run a Wizard-of-Oz test: 20 people wear a clip-on mic connected to a human operator for two weeks.
- And measure… daily uses per person in week two.
- We are right if… at least 12 of 20 people still use it five or more times a day.
Humane AI Pin failed because they asked people to give up something they already had, a phone, for something that did less and cost more.
Juicero: a Wi-Fi-connected, cold-press home juicing machine
- We believe… people will pay $400 for the press because the juice packs can’t be squeezed without it.
- To verify, we will… hand ten people a pack and no machine.
- And measure… how many get a full glass by hand.
- We are right if… no more than 1 in 10 does it within two minutes.
Juicero failed because its expensive machine turned out to be unnecessary. People discovered it was just as possible to squeeze their juice packs by hand!
