I think the biggest risk for each product was whether people would find it useful enough to actually pay for. These are the tests I would propose:
Quibi:
We believe people will keep paying $4.99 a month for short videos on their phones, even with free alternatives available.
To verify, we will send 1,000 target viewers to a landing page offering a small selection of licensed shows on a simple mobile website. After the first paid month, we’ll ask them to renew without a discount or automatic billing.
We would measure how many of the original visitors pay for a second month.
We are right if at least 50 do. This would test whether people wanted to keep watching before we built an entire streaming service.
Humane AI Pin:
We believe people will find wearable AI useful enough to pay $699 plus $24 a month, even though they already have smartphones.
To verify, we will lend 20 target customers working prototypes for two weeks alongside their phones, without reminding them to use them. Then we’ll offer the device at full price.
And measure how many buy it and keep it past the return period.
We are right if at least five do. A smaller group makes sense when people need time with a physical product.
Juicero:
We believe juice buyers will pay $699 for a machine, plus packet costs, instead of buying their usual juice.
To verify, we will run comparison sessions with 50 juice buyers using one prototype, showing the taste, preparation, cleanup, and full costs alongside their usual purchase.
And measure how many place a paid preorder at full price.
We are right if at least five do. Simply liking the juice wouldn’t be enough.
