Quibi:
We believe: People are willing to pay $5/month for short, professionally produced videos on their phones, even when free alternatives like YouTube and TikTok exist.
To verify, we will: Create a simple website featuring trailers and sample episodes, then offer a $5/month subscription before producing full shows.
And measure: The percentage of visitors willing to subscribe and pay.
We are right if: At least 30% of the visitors complete a paid subscription.
Humane AI Pin
We believe: People would prefer using a wearable AI assistant for everyday tasks instead of taking out their smartphones.
To verify, we will: Give certain users a basic wearable prototype for one week and let them complete everyday tasks such as messaging, searching, and setting reminders.
And measure: How often users choose the wearable over their phones and whether they continue using it.
We are right if: At least 50% of participants voluntarily use the prototype daily.
Juicero
We believe: Customers are willing to pay for a machine that makes preparing fresh juice more convenient than squeezing juice packs by hand.
To verify, we will: Let some potential customers compare the machine with manually squeezing identical juice packs, then offer the machine for purchase.
And measure: The percentage willing to purchase the machine after comparing both methods.
We are right if: At least 20% commit to purchase the machine.
All three products had ambitious ideas, but I think their biggest mistake was investing heavily before proving that customers actually needed what they were building. And I personally don’t buy most of the ideas and believe that there are already existing products in the market that did a better job compare to them.
