Three products that launched big and failed were Google Glass, the Amazon Fire Phone, and Ouya.
Google Glass
In 2012, Google Glass was a pair of smart glasses with a small display in front of your eye. Users could record videos, view maps, and browse the internet without using their phone. It also had a pretty high price tag of around $1,500. The riskiest assumption the team made was that people would find enough everyday value in Google Glass to justify regularly wearing it in public.
Test Card:
We believe smartphone users will wear smart glasses in public and find them useful.
To verify, we will give 20 customers camera-ready prototypes for a week.
And measure how many wear them in public and use them over the week.
We are right if more than 11 of the 20 do.
The cheapest test would be to create a low-cost prototype that can connect to a phone. This would let them test both social comfort and everyday usefulness before fully investing in the hardware.
Amazon Fire Phone
In 2014, Amazon launched the Fire Phone as a smartphone to compete with the iPhone and Samsung. At its launch, it cost $199 and had a smaller app ecosystem. The riskiest assumption was that the Fire Phone’s unique features would provide enough value for people and that they would be willing to switch from the phones and ecosystems they already used.
Test Card:
We believe smartphone users will switch to the Fire Phone because it has unique features that are more valuable than competitors at the same price.
To verify, we will show 100 people a comparison page of the Fire Phone and competitors and see if people pre-order for a refundable $30.
And measure how many of them place a pre-order.
We are right if more than 10 of the 100 do.
The cheapest test would be a landing page that shows the different trade-offs and specs, pros and cons, and still offers the same pre-order. This could test whether people are willing to explore switching before investing so much in manufacturing the phone.
Ouya
In 2013, Ouya launched an Android-based gaming console to bring mobile gaming to the console and TV format. At launch, it cost $99 and had a small game library and a few exclusive games. The riskiest assumption was that gamers wanted a console between mobile gaming and traditional console/PC gaming.
Test Card:
We believe gamers will buy the Ouya after testing the controller in our games.
To verify, we will show 30 customers demos of the game and offer them an option to pre-order with a refundable $30.
And measure how many of them place a pre-order after trying the demos.
We are right if more than 10 of the 30 do.
The cheapest test would be to recreate the Ouya experience using existing Android hardware that most people already have and a prototype controller. After they experience it, offer them the option to sign up for a pre-order.
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