Quibi
We believe: People will pay for premium short-form entertainment designed specifically for phones rather than just watching free content on YouTube, TikTok, etc.
To verify, we will: Launch a fake-door landing page showing real Quibi-style shows, pricing, and a preorder button before producing a full content library.
And measure: The percentage of visitors who attempt to subscribe.
We are right if: At least 5% of 1,000 targeted visitors attempt to preorder.
Quibi raised over $1 billion and built expensive Hollywood content around this assumption, but struggled to gain traction and shut down months after launch.
Humane AI Pin
We believe: People will pay about $700 + a monthly subscription for a wearable AI assistant because it provides enough features to replace smartphones.
To verify, we will: Give 50 target users a functional but rough prototype for one week and ask afterward whether they would buy it at full price.
And measure: Purchase intent after actual use.
We are right if: At least 20% commit to purchasing.
The released Pin was criticized for limited functionality, overheating, slow responses, and an awkward projector, while still costing $699 plus $24/month.
Juicero
We believe: Customers will pay $400 for a connected press because it creates meaningfully more value than simply squeezing the juice packs themselves.
To verify, we will: Give 30 users both the machine and the packs and let them try extracting juice with and without the device.
And measure: Which method they prefer and willingness to pay.
We are right if: At least 70% prefer the machine and at least 30% would pay $400.
This likely would have exposed the core problem immediately (that the packs could be squeezed by hand with nearly the same result).
The common mistake was spending heavily before cheaply testing whether the product created enough additional value to justify changing user behavior.
