Quibi’s bet was people will pay for a streaming platform of premium 10-minute videos. Their test card is:
- We believe users will pay $5/month for 10 minute premium episodes after a free trial.
- To verify, we will have ~300 people and send them an episode every day for two weeks. After, we’ll ask them to start paying $5/month.
- And measure how many people watch 10/14 of the videos in the trial and how many people choose to convert to paying at the end.
- We are right if 40% watch 10/14 episodes and 20% convert to the paid plan.
Humane AI Pin’s bet was people will swap their phone for an accurate screenless wearable, and pay $700 for it. Their test card is:
- We believe users will reach for a screenless assistant for basic tasks when it’s available to them on a daily basis.
- To verify, we’ll perform a Wizard of Oz test with 50 beta testers (locked phone in pocket, only responds to voice commands). We’ll let them use it for 2 weeks.
- And measure how often each user uses it. We’d also measure how successful each request is.
- We are right if 60% of users make 10+ requests a day at the end.
Juicero’s bet was people will pay $700 for a custom juicer instead of using a blender. Their test card is:
- We believe users will be willing to put down a refundable deposit on a $700 juicer with an additional juice pack subscription each month.
- To verify, we will use a fake-door test that allows you to put down $50 towards the juicer. Send this out to users using ads.
- And measure what percentage of users are willing to put down a deposit.
- We are right if 7% put down a deposit.
