Before their big launches, Quibi, the Humane AI Pin, and Juicero could have used these simple tests to find out whether customers would actually pay for what they were building.
Quibi
We believe: People will pay $4.99 monthly for original, phone-only shows under ten minutes.
To verify, we will: Show 200 potential customers a concept page with sample trailers and offer a refundable $4.99 reservation.
And measure: The percentage who pay within 14 days.
We are right if: At least 8%—16 people—reserve.
Humane AI Pin
We believe: Smartphone owners will pay $699 plus $24 monthly for hands-free assistance.
To verify, we will: Give 20 potential customers a weeklong trial using a mock wearable and disclosed human assistance, then offer refundable preorders at that price.
And measure: The percentage who preorder after the trial.
We are right if: At least 15%—3 people—preorder.
Juicero
We believe: Customers will pay the original $700 price for the press even after seeing that its juice packs can be squeezed by hand.
To verify, we will: Let 20 potential customers compare hand-squeezed and machine-pressed juice, then offer refundable $700 reservations.
And measure: The percentage who reserve after both demonstrations.
We are right if: At least 25%—5 people—reserve.
