- Size of TAM; i.e. size of your industry if you could reach every human in it.
- 300M US population
- Vegans: 1% of US population (IFIC) → 3M population
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- Power consumer
- 15% eat 3 or more frozen meals a week → 0.5M people
- 0.5M*3 = 1.5M frozen meals a week
- Typical consumer
- 60% eat 1-2 frozen meals a week → 1.8M people
- 1.8M*1 = 18M frozen meals a week
- Total consumers: 2.3M
- Total frozen meals/week = 19.5M
- Total frozen meals/year = 1.014B
- Price of frozen meal
- $10 on average
- Power consumer
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- = $10B revenue
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- Vegans who consume frozen meals
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Sources:
Vegetarian: 6% of people
Frozen food: https://civicscience.com/american-frozen-entree-and-snack-consumption-is-gaining-steam/
In U.S., 4% Identify as Vegetarian, 1% as Vegan
The Continued Rise of the Flexitarian Diet – The Food Institute estimates that 78 million households in the United States are flexitarian
What is the Flexitarian Diet? – IFIC says about 11% is flexitarian
6% of people are vegetarian – https://www.statista.com/topics/3377/vegan-market/?srsltid=AfmBOookISgoQ23teyP7NEnh3MFMeaCP54qwLkFchOgvszoDTujA0xlk#topicOverview
Average number of times ready-to-eat foods and frozen meals or pizzas were eaten in the past 30 days
- Guesstimate of SAM:
What percent of the market do you think your company has now (you may have info in the company documentation)
- We have 45,000 Monthly Active Customers
- Total vegan consumers who eat frozen meals: 2.3M
- 1.96% → Greenplate’s current % of the vegan frozen meals market
- SAM: $10B (TAM) * 0.0196 (% market share) = $196 million
Source: Greenplate Doc
User/Customer Metrics:
- Total Customers: 450,000 (70% one-time buyers)
- Monthly Active Customers: 45,000
- Retention Rate: 30% after 6 months (industry average: 42%)
- NPS Score: 71 among vegans, 34 among non-vegans
- Cart Abandonment: 68% (price cited as #1 reason)
- SOM: Figure out how big the opportunities are for the two ideas you brainstormed.
Opportunity 1: Gym goers
- 7.6M population of Bay Area → initial market expansion
- 25% are gymgoers
- 7.6M * .25 = 1.9M gym going Bay Area folk
- 11% are flexitarian
- 1.9M * 0.11 = 209K flexitarian gym going Bay Area folk
For our SOM, we are targeting the 15% of people who are power consumers: who eat 3+ frozen meals a week (from above), so are easier to obtain.
- 209K * 0.15 = 31,350 people
- 31,350 * 3 = 94,050 frozen meals purchased a week
- Assume 1 of 3 is ours → 31,350 meals sold weekly
- $10 * 31,350 = $313,500 weekly
- 313.5K * 52 = $16.3M market opportunity (annually)
Opportunity 2: Flexitarians
A flexitarian diet, also called a semi-vegetarian diet, is one that is centered on plant foods with limited or occasional inclusion of meat.
300M US population
Flexitarian: 11% of US population (IFIC) → 33M population
- We are confident we can reach: Power consumers
- 15% eat 3 or more frozen meals a week → 5M people
- 5M*3 = 15M frozen meals a week → total frozen meals/year = 780M
- Price of frozen meal: $10 on average = $7.8B revenue
- Flexitarians who consume frozen meals we are confident we can reach
7.6M Bay Area population → narrowed down from above
Flexitarian: 11% of Bay Area population (IFIC) → 836K population
- We are confident we can reach: Power consumers
- 15% eat 3 or more frozen meals a week → 125K people
- 125K * 3 = 376K frozen meals a week
- Total frozen meals/year = 19.6M (376K meals/week * 52 weeks)
- Price of frozen meal: $10 on average = $196M revenue
- Flexitarians who consume frozen meals we are confident we can reach
