Quibi
Quibi projected over 7 million subscribers and reached about 500,000.
Riskiest bet: people would pay for phone-only shows.
- We believe people will pay $4.99 a month for short, phone-only shows.
- To verify, we will give 200 people a simple app with free episodes for two weeks, then ask them to subscribe.
- And measure the percentage who enter payment information.
- We are right if at least 20% subscribe.
Humane AI Pin
The Humane AI Pin sold about 10,000 units against a goal of 100,000, and returns outpaced sales from May to August.
Riskiest bet: people would choose it over their phones.
- We believe people will choose a screenless AI wearable over their phones for everyday tasks.
- To verify, we will have 20 people carry a phone in their shirt pocket, screen off, using only a voice assistant for two weeks.
- And measure the percentage still using it daily in week two.
- We are right if at least 50% do.
Juicero
Juicero raised about $120 million, but reporters showed its packs could be squeezed by hand.
Riskiest bet: the press was worth $400.
- We believe people would pay $400 for a press rather than hand squeezing juice packs.
- To verify, we will have 50 people make juice from the packs both ways, using an off-the-shelf press, then offer a $400 preorder with a $50 deposit.
- And measure the percentage who put down the deposit.
- We are right if at least 25% do.
Sources
Quibi: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/22/quibi-co-founders-katzenberg-whitman-explain-what-went-wrong.html
Humane AI Pin: https://9to5mac.com/2024/08/07/humane-ai-pin-woes-worsen-as-recent-returns-exceed-sales/
Juicero: https://www.fa-mag.com/news/investors-have-poured–120m-into-this-juicer-startup–there-s-just-one-tiny-problem-32368.html
