Quibi, Humane and Juicero – what do they have in common?
Quibi
Quibi expected more than 7 million subscribers in its first year. At closing (6 months after launch) it had around 500,000.
We believe: Customers would pay $4.99/month to watch short shows only available on mobile phones.
To verify, we will: Create a fake-door “Subscribe for $4.99/month” link with show trailers.
And measure: What % of visitors click “Subscribe”.
We are right if: At least 50 people out of 1,000 click.
Cheapest test: a fake door, instead of investing $1.75 billion into content.
Humane AI Pin
The Verge said it “just doesn’t work”, and for a period more people returned the Pin than bought it.
We believe: Customers would pay $699 + $24/month to use the AI Pin instead of their phones daily.
To verify, we will: Give 10 people a dummy Pin for a week while a person answers their requests.
And measure: Daily uses of the Pin instead of the phone.
We are right if: At least 7 of 10 still use it daily in week two.
Cheapest test: a dummy AI Pin with a person answering requests.
Juicero
Bloomberg squeezed the packs by hand: 7.5 ounces in 90 seconds, against the machine’s 8 ounces in about two minutes.
We believe: Customers need the $400 Juicero press to press the juice packs.
To verify, we will: Ask 10 people to press the packs by hand.
And measure: Juice per pack.
We are right if: Hand-pressing yields less than half the press’s juice.
Cheapest test: pressing the packs by hand.
In all three cases, they tested the product instead of the assumption. Like our own “Get started” fake door, the test that could have proved them wrong was cheap.
