Assumption validation is essential for every idea to be tested at a low cost and can quickly iterate the idea based on the results. Augustín didn’t do research on his assumptions. When María raised some concerns, Augustín responded confidently, but only with his assumptions. Personal assumptions sometimes seem to be straightforward and so true, but a lot of times, they don’t reflect users’ true thoughts. Some assumptions are:
- Only a few original customers will be upset when they eliminate the promotion and sale elements. The overall customer growth will still be high.
- Young people will come with their friends and family and buy products.
- Physical stores will continue to be very important to people.
- People will be willing to pay for ‘everyday-low-prices’ products.
Some advice I would give Augustín are:
First, have statistics and clear reasonings of why the current plan doesn’t work.
What are some strategies available to improve the current situation? And what are the switching cost, efforts, and expected outcome for each strategy?
Conduct assumption testing on customers to validate the idea, get more real customer feedback, and adjust the plan accordingly.
To have a long-term plan, listing out the objectives and expected outcomes would be helpful in tracking the effectiveness of the plan. OKRs could be implemented here. Having the Key results listed out for each time period and keeping track could be more persuasive for the board members, instead of just saying it is a long-term plan and we should wait later until it becomes better.
